IAFUT.c⚽m
Liga MX, Apertura · 13
🏠
San Luís Home
2 - 1
✈️
Queretaro Away
Finished
Consensus: 3/3 correct ✅

San Luís vs Queretaro: A Genuine Toss-Up in Liga MX Round 13

San Luis vs Queretaro: A Genuine Toss-Up in Liga MX Round 13

San Luís and Queretaro meet on Tuesday night in Round 13 of the Apertura, and the models barely separate them. Beto Casas has the hosts on 36.1%, Nico Campos on 36.5%, and only Max Méndez leans harder at 47.7%. Even so, the overall picture is a slight San Luís lean in a match that could go any way.

The form guide tells two different stories. San Luís are 13 points from 12 games with a -5 goal difference, but they just held a strong Toluca side to a 1-1 draw on the road, coming back through Rafael Llorente after conceding. Queretaro sit better in the table with 20 points from 11 games and a +2 goal difference, yet they arrive on the back of a 5-0 hammering at Santos Laguna, with Diego Reyes sent off in that game.

That loss came just three days before kickoff, so there is little time to reset. A heavy defeat can leave a team rattled, or it can fuel a quick response. That uncertainty is exactly why this is so hard to call.

KEY MATCH FACTORS

- Queretaro's bruising 5-0 loss to Santos Laguna on October 17, and how they bounce back from it.
- San Luís showing resilience in a 1-1 draw at Toluca, a result that suggests they can hang with good sides.
- Queretaro's superior record this season: 6 wins and 20 points against San Luís's 3 wins and 13 points.
- San Luís's defensive leaks, with 21 goals conceded in 12 games.
- Recent head-to-head swings, from San Luís's 3-0 win in February to Queretaro's 3-2 win in August 2025.

In short, San Luís carry a slight edge in the models, but Queretaro's table position and the chance of a draw keep every outcome alive. Expect a tight, edgy night.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 47.7% confidence
Max Méndez

Max Méndez

Advanced stats
Confidence 47.7%
🏠 47.7% 🤝 25.5% ✈️ 26.8%
San Luís with a slight edge over a defensively sturdy Queretaro

My model gives San Luís 47.7%, the draw 25.5% and Queretaro 26.8%. That is a moderate lean to the hosts, though not a decisive one.

The defensive numbers are what stand out for the visitors. Queretaro have conceded 13 goals in 11 games, a strong return, and their +2 goal difference is clearly better than San Luís's -5. On paper that favours them. But the 5-0 loss to Santos Laguna is a real outlier that cuts against the clean defensive profile, especially with Reyes sent off in that match.

San Luís have conceded 21 in 12, which is leaky, yet they score at a decent clip with 16 goals and showed attacking intent in recent games, scoring in four of their last five. The model also weighs home wins as a factor, and the head-to-head history shows a mix, with the hosts winning 3-0 and 4-0 in two of the last five at home.

So the data points slightly toward San Luís, driven by home advantage and Queretaro's fresh defensive wobble. A Queretaro result remains possible given their season-long solidity, but the lean stays with the hosts.

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✅ Correct Predicted Home — 36.1% confidence
Beto Casas

Beto Casas

Odds-based
Confidence 36.1%
🏠 36.1% 🤝 32.5% ✈️ 31.4%
Slight lean to San Luís, but it's a coin flip

Let's be honest: the model gives San Luís 36.1%, the draw 32.5% and Queretaro 31.4%. That is not a prediction, that is a shrug with decimals. My lean goes to the hosts, but the confidence is low, and anyone calling this a lock is selling something.

The interesting number is the draw at 32.5%. It sits only 1.1 points behind the home win, which tells you the market sees a stalemate as nearly as plausible as a winner. And Queretaro at 31.4% is only 4.7 points off the top, so the visitors are far from dead money.

The gap between the away side and the draw is razor thin, just 1.1 points. That means the model can barely tell whether Queretaro take the three points or settle for a share. When the spread across all three outcomes is this tight, the edge, if there is one, is small and fragile.

So I lean San Luís at 36.1%, but I'd treat it as a mild preference rather than a conviction. Uncomfortable truth: three outcomes, almost equal weight, and no model magic changes that.

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✅ Correct Predicted Home — 36.5% confidence
Nico Campos

Nico Campos

Standings-based
Confidence 36.5%
🏠 36.5% 🤝 28.4% ✈️ 35.0%
San Luís by a whisker, though Queretaro can take it

Looking at what's actually happened on the pitch, I lean San Luís slightly, but honestly this one could go either way. My numbers have it 36.5% for San Luís and 35.0% for Queretaro, so basically a hair apart.

What I like about San Luís is how they handled Toluca, one of the better teams in the league, and still came away with a draw after Rafael Llorente equalised. That showed some fight. They also beat Pumas 3-2 away not long ago, so they can score goals.

Queretaro's table position is the better one, with 20 points and 6 wins, and their away form has been solid, including wins at Guadalajara and Tijuana. But that 5-0 thrashing by Santos Laguna is a big red flag, and losing a player to a red card in that game adds to the mess.

The variance in points is what makes this tricky. Both teams can look good one week and shaky the next. I'd go San Luís by the smallest of margins, but a draw at 28.4% is also very much in play.

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