Who wins Guadalajara vs Queretaro?

Max Méndez (62.1%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (60.5%) predicts Home. Nico Campos (53.8%) predicts Home

What time is Guadalajara vs Queretaro?

Guadalajara vs Queretaro: 26 Sep 2026, 17:07 hrs. Liga MX, Apertura.

Liga MX, Apertura · 10

🏠

Guadalajara Home

0 - 2

✈️

Queretaro Away

26 Sep 2026 · 17:07

Finished

Consensus: 0/3 correct ❌

Video analysis

Guadalajara vs Querétaro | ¿Chivas imparable en casa?

Guadalajara Will Win at Home: The Table Doesn't Tell the Full Story

The casual glance at the standings might make this look like a competitive match between two sides pushing for the top. Querétaro sit fifth with 14 points, Guadalajara second with 18. Respectable gap, sure — but what the table doesn't capture is the structural gap between these two teams when Chivas play in front of their own fans.

Guadalajara haven't lost in eight consecutive Liga MX matches. That run includes a 3-0 demolition of Pumas and a 3-0 road win at San Luis. Even the 2-2 draw in the Clásico against América — where Chivas led 2-0 at half — showed a team with real attacking identity. Querétaro, meanwhile, have drawn their last two: a 1-1 at home to León just days ago, and a scoreless draw at Pumas before that. Their wins have come on the road, but their home form tells a more modest story.

The head-to-head record also leans Guadalajara's way. In the last five meetings, Chivas have won three times, with two of those coming at home. Querétaro's only recent win was away from La Corregidora.

**KEY MATCH FACTORS:**
• Guadalajara's home goal output this season is the best in the division — 17 goals in 9 games overall
• Chivas are unbeaten in 8 straight, with 5 wins and 3 draws
• Querétaro have drawn their last two matches, including a home game just two days before this fixture
• Head-to-head: Guadalajara have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including the last home clash
• Querétaro's goal difference (+3) pales next to Guadalajara's (+9)

All three models land on the same verdict: Guadalajara win. The home advantage, the attacking momentum, and the structural data all point in one direction. Querétaro aren't pushovers, but this is the wrong venue to test their limits.

Predictions

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 62.1% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 62.1%

🏠 62.1% 🤝 19.6% ✈️ 18.3%

Guadalajara Win — Attacking Output and Home Record Are Decisive

The statistical case for Guadalajara here is straightforward. With 17 goals in 9 matches, Chivas lead the division in attacking output, and a significant portion of that production has come at home. Their goal difference of +9 versus Querétaro's +3 reflects a meaningful gap in overall team quality across both ends of the pitch.

Guadalajara's recent form — 3 wins and 2 draws across their last 5 — includes a 3-0 home win over Pumas and a 3-0 away win at San Luis. That's not a team running on luck. Their 5 victories in 9 league games place them firmly among the form sides in the Apertura.

Querétaro's numbers are respectable but not alarming for the opposition. Their last two results are draws, and their attacking return of 11 goals in 8 games is solid but not elite. Away from home, they've shown they can win — their trip to Tijuana produced 3 points — but Guadalajara at home is a different challenge entirely.

My model gives Guadalajara a 62.1% win probability. The combination of home goal output, overall victories, and the gap in goal difference makes this one of the cleaner calls of Round 10.

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 60.5% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 60.5%

🏠 60.5% 🤝 16.4% ✈️ 23.2%

Guadalajara Win — The Market Knows What the Romantics Don't

Let's be blunt: the market has already priced this in. My numbers give Guadalajara a 60.5% chance of winning, Querétaro just 23.2%, and a draw a barely relevant 16.4%. That gap between the home win and everything else is not a coincidence — it's the market telling you something most fans don't want to hear.

Querétaro look decent in the table, sure. But 'decent' doesn't pay. What the numbers see is a visiting side with soft underlying form — two draws in a row, including a home game they couldn't win against León. Meanwhile, Guadalajara's home probability isn't inflated by sentiment; it's built on consistent output and market confidence that has barely wavered all tournament.

The biggest red flag? That 23.2% for Querétaro. That's not nothing, but it's also not a number you build a case around. The empate at 16.4% is practically noise. When the spread between local and draw is this wide, the market is telling you it's not a close call. I don't do emotions. I do probabilities. And right now, the probabilities say Guadalajara.

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 53.8% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 53.8%

🏠 53.8% 🤝 28.1% ✈️ 18.2%

Guadalajara Win — Home Form Makes the Difference Here

Look, Querétaro have been okay this season. They've picked up wins away from home and they're not a team you can just ignore. But when I watch Guadalajara at home, I see something different. They're fluid, they score goals, and opponents genuinely struggle to contain them.

The Clásico draw against América last weekend? That was a 2-0 lead that slipped — frustrating, sure — but it also showed that Chivas can dominate even top-quality opposition for long stretches. Before that, they were putting three goals past Pumas and three past San Luis on the road. That's a team in real rhythm.

Querétaro, on the other hand, drew at home to León just two days ago. They couldn't close out a game they needed to win. That's not great preparation mentally for a trip to one of the toughest venues in Liga MX.

The head-to-head history also matters here. Guadalajara won the last time these two met in January, and their home record against Querétaro over the past few years is strong. I lean clearly toward Chivas getting the three points on Saturday night.