Who wins Venecia vs Inter?

Max Méndez (77.1%) predicts Away. Beto Casas (56.3%) predicts Away. Nico Campos (87.1%) predicts Away

What time is Venecia vs Inter?

Venecia vs Inter: 28 Oct 2026, 11:30 hrs. Serie A.

Serie A · 9

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Venecia Home

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Inter Away

28 Oct 2026 · 11:30

Scheduled

Consensus: 3/3 predict Away

Inter Are Too Strong for Venezia: Why the Models See a Nerazzurri Win

The surface narrative says Venezia might be turning a corner. New coach, a 1-0 win over Napoli on October 17, a narrow defeat at Genoa where they pushed hard late. Inter, meanwhile, are coming off a Champions League loss to Brugge and a stressful comeback against Fiorentina. Looks like a trap game, right?

The models see something different. A Venezia side with one win in eight games, six goals scored and 17 conceded is still a team in survival mode, and one good result does not erase that. Inter, on the other hand, have 22 points from 8 matches, a goal difference of +13, and a habit of finding a way even when things go sideways. Winning at the 98th minute against Fiorentina is not luck, it is a team that keeps its structure when it is under pressure.

There is also the head-to-head. Inter have beaten Venezia in all five of their last meetings, including a 5-1 Coppa Italia win in December 2025. The last league trips went 1-0 and 2-0. This is a repeated pattern, not a coincidence.

On the calendar side, Inter played on October 25 and have a Wednesday-night kickoff on October 28, so there is a short turnaround. But they have the depth and the habit of rotating through it, while Venezia also played on the 25th and have no edge in freshness.

**KEY MATCH FACTORS**

- Inter's goal difference of +13 against Venezia's -11 is the widest gap on the table.
- Venezia have lost 7 of 8 and conceded 17 goals, more than two per game.
- Inter have won 7 of 8, scoring 23 goals.
- Inter have won all five recent meetings between the sides.
- Venezia's win over Napoli is the lone bright spot in a run of four defeats from five.

The models agree: this is Inter's game to lose, and Venezia's recent upturn is not enough to change the direction.

Predictions

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Away

Confidence 77.1%

🏠 13.6% 🤝 9.3% ✈️ 77.1%

Inter away win: a +13 vs -11 goal difference gap decides it

The goal difference gap is the headline. Inter sit at +13 with 23 scored and 10 conceded; Venezia are at -11 with 6 scored and 17 conceded. That is a 24-goal swing across the same number of matches, and it reflects a structural difference in both attack and defence rather than a short-term variance.

Inter's away form supports the model's read. They've won 7 of 8 overall, and the road win at Bologna (3-1) shows they can take points in difficult venues. Their average of nearly three goals per game puts consistent pressure on a defence that has been shipping more than two per match.

Venezia's attack is the other half of the problem. Six goals in eight games is under one per match, and their only recent clean-sheet win came against Napoli. Before that, they conceded three to Atalanta and four to Fiorentina.

My model assigns Inter 77.1%, Venezia 13.6% and the draw 9.3%. The draw is the least likely outcome because Inter's scoring volume makes a low-scoring stalemate unlikely. The head-to-head record, five straight Inter wins, aligns with the underlying metrics. Away win.

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Away

Confidence 56.3%

🏠 19.4% 🤝 24.4% ✈️ 56.3%

Inter win at 56.3%, the market sees through the Venezia hype

Let's be blunt: one win over Napoli does not make Venezia a threat, it makes them a team that got lucky once. My model gives Inter a 56.3% chance, Venezia 19.4% and the draw 24.4%. The home side is the clear underdog, and the numbers back that up without any emotional rounding.

What drives this is the gap between the away win and the draw. Inter's path to three points is far more probable than the stalemate, and that spread is the signal I trust. The draw is possible but difficult, because Inter simply have more ways to score and Venezia have fewer ways to hold on for 90 minutes.

The uncomfortable truth for anyone leaning on the narrative of the Napoli upset: a single result is noise. The implied probability of a Venezia win sits at 19.4% for a reason, and nothing in the recent form justifies pushing it higher. If you are paying a premium on the home side because of last week, you are paying for a story, not for value.

The cold read stays the same: Inter are the favourite, the draw is the second-best outcome, and Venezia are a distant third.

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Away

Confidence 87.1%

🏠 4.7% 🤝 8.2% ✈️ 87.1%

Inter take it away from home, and it's not close on the table

Watching Inter this season, they just keep finding a way. Seven wins from eight, 22 points, level with Lazio at the top. Even when they go behind, like against Fiorentina, they push until the end and win it. That kind of attitude is hard to beat.

Venezia, on the other hand, sit on 3 points. They've lost seven of eight, and even though the win over Napoli gave them a lift, they went right back to losing at Genoa. The effort is there, you can see it, but they just don't get enough out of it.

The points gap tells most of the story. Inter's total of 22 points against Venezia's 3 is a canyon, and the distance between them as a visiting side versus a home side under pressure matters more than the venue. Even without Lautaro Martinez and a few others, Inter had enough to win last time out.

I expect Venezia to compete and make it uncomfortable for stretches, but over 90 minutes Inter are just much more complete. Away win, and I feel good about it.