Who wins Union Gilloise vs Be`er Sheva?

Max Méndez (47.0%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (75.3%) predicts Home. Nico Campos (59.0%) predicts Home

What time is Union Gilloise vs Be`er Sheva?

Union Gilloise vs Be`er Sheva: 22 Oct 2026, 10:45 hrs. Liga Europa de la UEFA.

Liga Europa de la UEFA · 3

🏠

Union Gilloise Home

4 - 0

✈️

Be`er Sheva Away

22 Oct 2026 · 10:45

Finished

Consensus: 3/3 correct ✅

Union Gilloise vs Be'er Sheva: Why the Models Back the Belgians in Europa League Round 3

On the surface, this looks like a tricky one: a neutral venue, a draw with Real Sociedad fresh in the memory and a visiting side that has just won four straight at home. The models see past that noise. What they see is a gap in quality and form that a change of stadium does not erase.

Union arrive with 4 points from two Europa League games, a +3 goal difference and a 3-0 away win at Plzen already in the bag. Be'er Sheva have 1 point, one goal scored and a 2-1 defeat at Alkmaar last time out. The most recent matches for both sides are well inside the last week or so, but Union's 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad on October 15 shows a team still getting results against better opposition than this.

The models do not agree on every number, but they agree on the direction: Union Gilloise are the pick, and the draw is the least likely outcome in two of the three readings.

KEY MATCH FACTORS
- Goal difference: Union sit at +3 after two European games, Be'er Sheva at -1.
- Attacking output: 4 goals scored against 1 for the visitors, who have struggled to create in Europe.
- Recent form: Union have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five, while Be'er Sheva have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses.
- Europa League start: 4 points for Union versus 1 for Be'er Sheva, who are still without a win in the league phase.
- Squad strain: Union have several injury concerns, but the visitors are also missing key players, so the balance barely shifts.

The conclusion is simple. Union are not flawless, and the neutral venue removes some of their usual edge. But the numbers consistently point to the Belgian side controlling this game, and the models back them to take the three points.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 47.0% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 47.0%

🏠 47.0% 🤝 27.3% ✈️ 25.7%

Union Gilloise edge it: goal difference and home record tilt the balance

My model leans Union Gilloise at 47.0%, with the draw at 27.3% and Be'er Sheva at 25.7%. That is a moderate-confidence call, and the draw is a genuine part of the picture here.

The key separator is goal difference per game. Union have scored 4 and conceded 1 in two Europa League matches, a +3 balance, against 1 scored and 2 conceded for Be'er Sheva. That gap in output is where the edge comes from, not from any dramatic swing in quality.

Union's recent results also support the lean: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last five, including 1-1 against Real Sociedad on October 15 and 1-1 against Leuven on October 11. Both draws came from matches they were competitive in. Be'er Sheva's last five read 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with a heavy 5-2 defeat to Sabah in qualifying.

The caution is simple: Union have drawn twice in their last three outings, so the margin is thin. Be'er Sheva cannot be written off, but the better underlying numbers sit with the Belgians. I take Union by a slight margin.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 75.3% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 75.3%

🏠 75.3% 🤝 12.0% ✈️ 12.8%

Union Gilloise win: 75.3% says the market is already decided

Let me say the uncomfortable part out loud: this is not a fair fight, and my model does not pretend otherwise. I give Union Gilloise 75.3%, the draw 12.0% and Be'er Sheva 12.8%. Notice something odd there? The visitor is rated slightly more likely than the draw, which tells you how little faith there is in a stalemate. A draw is the outcome nobody wants to hold here.

The real gap sits between the home side and the visitor, and it is enormous. Where the market usually hesitates, there is very little uncertainty this time. Be'er Sheva need an upset, and an upset is by definition the least probable thing on the board. At 12.8%, it is possible, but it would be the exception, not the rule.

I do not care about neutral-venue romance. The numbers have priced that in, and Union still come out miles ahead. If you are looking for value in a Be'er Sheva win, you are paying for hope, not for edge. My read is high confidence: Union Gilloise take it, and the draw is a distraction.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 59.0% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 59.0%

🏠 59.0% 🤝 18.7% ✈️ 22.3%

Union Gilloise win: they look sharper and are ahead in the table

Watching these two, Union Gilloise just look like the more complete team. They beat Plzen 3-0 away, then held Real Sociedad to a 1-1 draw, and that is a proper test they came through fine. They have 4 points from two games in the Europa League and a goal difference of +3.

Be'er Sheva are on 1 point and have scored only once. They drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb and then lost 2-1 at Alkmaar. Not terrible, but not a team that is making things happen in Europe right now. They did beat Crvena Zvezda away and Sabah at home earlier in the season, so they are not hopeless, but the level in this competition looks higher for them.

The neutral ground means Union lose their usual crowd, which is a small worry. Still, on what I see, they have more points, more goals and better results against stronger teams. I back Union to win this one with high confidence, even if Be'er Sheva will make it a bit awkward at times.