Who wins Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?

Max Méndez (47.4%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (57.6%) predicts Away. Nico Campos (39.8%) predicts Home

What time is Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 hrs. Liga Europa de la UEFA.

Liga Europa de la UEFA · 3

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Omonia Nicosia Home

1 - 4

✈️

Benfica Away

22 Oct 2026 · 13:00

Finished

Consensus: 1/3 correct

Omonia vs Benfica: Models Split on a Europa League Clash in Nicosia

Two perfect records, one stage in Nicosia. Omonia and Benfica both arrive on six points from two Europa League games, and Thursday's meeting at GSP Stadium has split our models right down the middle.

Benfica come in flying: 4-1 against Celtic last week, a 2-0 over Guimaraes, and a perfect run in the competition so far with six goals scored and just one conceded. Omonia have been just as tidy in Europe, winning 1-0 at Celta and 3-0 at Celje on October 15, and they are yet to concede in the league phase. The sides have no recent history against each other, so everything rests on current form.

Here is where the disagreement starts. One model sees a clear market-backed favorite in the Portuguese side and gives them a big edge. The other two read the numbers differently, pointing to Omonia's goal-difference profile, their home momentum and Benfica's slightly shakier away numbers as reasons to lean toward the hosts. The gap is wide, from a 57.6% Benfica probability on one side to 47.4% for Omonia on the other.

KEY MATCH FACTORS

- Both teams have won their first two Europa League matches and sit on six points.
- Omonia have kept clean sheets in both league-phase games, while Benfica have conceded once.
- Benfica have scored four against Celtic and won four of their last five overall, with their only loss a 3-1 defeat at Porto.
- Omonia are unbeaten at home across competitions for 15 matches, per the pre-match reports.
- Benfica are rested after no domestic action over the weekend, but Kaminski and Barrenechea are out and Banjaqui is a doubt.

This looks like a genuinely contested game, with strong arguments on each side. The three predictions below show exactly why the models land where they do.

Predictions

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 47.4% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 47.4%

🏠 47.4% 🤝 12.2% ✈️ 40.4%

Omonia hold a narrow edge over Benfica at GSP Stadium

The key variable for me is how Benfica's attacking output travels, and how Omonia's defensive record holds up against a high-volume side. My model gives Omonia 47.4%, Benfica 40.4% and the draw just 12.2%, so I expect a decisive result.

Start with goals. Omonia have scored four and conceded none across two Europa League games for a goal difference of +4. Benfica are at +5 with six scored and one conceded, so the gap is marginal rather than decisive. In my framework, the visitor's goals per match and goal difference don't open up the space you'd expect against a side that has yet to be breached.

Then there's home momentum. Omonia have four wins from their last five, including a 3-0 at Celje on October 15, and they have been hard to score against. Benfica's recent form is also strong with four wins from five, but that run includes a 3-1 loss at Porto, which shows the defense can be stretched.

Put together, I see a slight but real advantage for Omonia, driven by their defensive solidity and home setting. Moderate confidence, and with the draw so unlikely, I expect one side to find a goal.

✅ Correct Predicted Away — 57.6% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 57.6%

🏠 18.5% 🤝 23.8% ✈️ 57.6%

Benfica win in Nicosia, and the numbers are blunt about it

Let me say the uncomfortable part out loud: people love a plucky home underdog story, but my model doesn't do romance. It gives Benfica a 57.6% chance of winning, Omonia 18.5% and the draw 23.8%. That is a wide gap, and I'm treating it as one.

Look at how the probability is distributed. The distance between Benfica and the draw is enormous, and the distance between the draw and an Omonia win is small by comparison. Omonia getting a result at all is the long shot here. A home win is only the least likely of the three outcomes.

The market tendency lines up with this. Money and models tend to flow toward the side with the stronger underlying profile, and right now that's Benfica. Omonia's clean sheets are nice, but a pair of tidy results doesn't erase the quality gap that the probabilities keep showing.

Could the draw sneak in at 23.8%? Sure, it's not nothing. But I'm not paying for a coin-flip scenario when one side clearly sits above the rest. I'm backing Benfica with high confidence and I'm not apologizing for it.

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 39.8% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 39.8%

🏠 39.8% 🤝 22.2% ✈️ 37.9%

Omonia edge it at home in a very tight one

Honestly, this is one of those games where I watch both teams and think, either could take it. Both have won their first two Europa League matches, both have six points, and neither feels like a team that's about to fall apart.

What I like about Omonia is how solid they look. Beating Celje 3-0 away and winning 1-0 at Celta tells me they know how to grind out results, and playing at home in Nicosia should help them again. Four wins in their last five also tells me the confidence is real.

Benfica are obviously dangerous, and that 4-1 over Celtic was impressive. But when I look at how they've done away from home and how their points and results have swung a bit, I don't see a team that's untouchable. They did lose that 3-1 at Porto not long ago, so it's not like they're perfect.

I'm leaning Omonia, but with low confidence. It's 39.8% for them against 37.9% for Benfica in my read, so this really is close. A draw feels less likely than a winner. If you made me pick, I'd go with the home side and cross my fingers.