Who wins OFI Kreta vs Leverkusen?

Max Méndez (48.5%) predicts Away. Beto Casas (57.0%) predicts Away. Nico Campos (41.7%) predicts Home

What time is OFI Kreta vs Leverkusen?

OFI Kreta vs Leverkusen: 22 Oct 2026, 10:45 hrs. Liga Europa de la UEFA.

Liga Europa de la UEFA · 3

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OFI Kreta Home

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Leverkusen Away

22 Oct 2026 · 10:45

Finished

Consensus: 2/3 correct

OFI Crete vs Leverkusen: Home Grit Meets Perfect Form as Our Models Split

Thursday's Europa League clash at the Pankritio Stadium looks lopsided on paper, but our models are not singing from the same hymn sheet.

Leverkusen arrive with five wins from five, two clean-sheet victories in the league phase and six goals scored without reply. OFI Crete, meanwhile, have lost three on the bounce since the international break, including a 4-3 defeat at Kalamata on Sunday. Yet this is the same side that beat Hoffenheim 2-0 in this competition and remains tough to crack at home.

That tension is exactly where the models diverge. Two of them back the German side, one with high confidence and one with moderate conviction. The third looks at what OFI have done as a visitor-proof host and leans toward the Greek side. Same match, three very different readings of what matters most.

KEY MATCH FACTORS

- Leverkusen's perfect start: 2 wins from 2 in the league phase, 6 goals for and none against.
- OFI's slump: three straight defeats, conceding 3 against AEK, 2 against Rennes and 4 against Kalamata.
- Home resilience: OFI have been hard to beat in Heraklion, with a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim as proof.
- Leverkusen's scoring spread: six goals in Europe shared around, with Patrik Schick leading the way.
- Squad issues for the visitors: several absentees, including Kofane, Terrier and Ben Seghir, could blunt their depth.

The real question is whether OFI's home pedigree can outweigh a bruising run of form, or whether Leverkusen's momentum simply carries them through. Our three voices have clear and conflicting opinions, so let's hear them out.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Away — 48.5% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 48.5%

🏠 35.8% 🤝 15.7% ✈️ 48.5%

Leverkusen narrow win on attacking output and form

My model leans Leverkusen at 48.5%, with OFI Crete at 35.8% and the draw at just 15.7%. That draw figure is low, which tells you I expect a decisive game, and the home side stays competitive throughout.

The visitor's scoring rate is the central point. Leverkusen have averaged three goals per game in Europe and have not conceded, and their recent form is five wins from five. That consistency in both phases is hard to ignore even with a patchy injury list.

OFI's home momentum is the counterweight. They have scored in each of their last two outings, but they have also conceded 9 goals across their last three losses. That defensive leakage is the real problem against a side producing chances from several sources.

I would not call this comfortable. OFI remain a live threat, and the margin is thin enough that one set piece could flip it. Still, the form and goals-per-game profile of the visitors tilts my read their way. Max Méndez: Leverkusen, with moderate confidence.

✅ Correct Predicted Away — 57.0% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 57.0%

🏠 16.9% 🤝 26.1% ✈️ 57.0%

Leverkusen win: the numbers don't do sentiment

Let's keep this clinical. My model gives Leverkusen 57.0%, OFI Crete 16.9% and the draw 26.1%. That is not a coin flip dressed up as a story, it's a clear gap, and the market tendency points the same way: Leverkusen as the obvious favourite.

The uncomfortable truth is that the draw sits well ahead of an OFI win in my numbers. The distance between the visitor outcome and the stalemate is wide, and the distance between the stalemate and a home win is wide too. In plain terms, the home side getting the job done is the least likely branch on the tree.

I know the romance of a proud home crowd and a wounded underdog. Romance doesn't move my probabilities. The draw is possible, but difficult to land, and a home victory is poorly supported. Beto Casas doesn't back stories, he backs gaps. High confidence in Leverkusen, and I'm not losing sleep over it.

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 41.7% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 41.7%

🏠 41.7% 🤝 24.4% ✈️ 33.9%

OFI Crete edge it at home despite the rough patch

This is the one where I go against the grain a bit. Yes, OFI have lost three in a row, and yes, Leverkusen look like a machine. But when I watch OFI at home, there's something there. They beat Hoffenheim 2-0 in this same competition and they've been tough to break down in Heraklion.

What stands out to me is how the points are spread. Leverkusen have the points total, no question, but the visiting side's returns away from home aren't as dominant as the headline run suggests. And the gap between the two sides in the table is smaller than the narrative makes it sound.

The pitch will be loud, OFI will be desperate to stop the slide, and Leverkusen are missing several players. I lean OFI with moderate confidence, because Leverkusen are still very much in this game and could easily take something. A draw feels unlikely to me, so I'm picking a side. Nico Campos says OFI by the slimmest of margins.