Who wins Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

Max Méndez (61.8%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (54.2%) predicts Away. Nico Campos (40.5%) predicts Home

What time is Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 hrs. Liga Europa de la UEFA.

Liga Europa de la UEFA · 3

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Lillestrom Home

0 - 6

✈️

Real Sociedad Away

22 Oct 2026 · 13:00

Finished

Consensus: 1/3 correct

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: Models Split on a Europa League Clash in Norway

Lillestrom and Real Sociedad arrive at the same spot in the Europa League table: two games, one draw, one defeat, one point each. That's where the similarities end, because our three models are looking at this fixture through completely different lenses.

One model sees a quality gap that the table doesn't show yet. Real Sociedad just put five past Malaga in LaLiga, with Mikel Oyarzabal finally off the mark, and the market treats the Basques as the side more likely to land the win. The other two models, however, point toward the hosts. They see a Lillestrom team with momentum: a 2-0 win at Sandefjord last weekend, a 1-1 draw in Prague, and Felix Va in sharp form up front. The numbers behind those views range from a modest edge for the home side to a fairly clear one.

The backdrop is a tight one. Both teams played on Thursday and again on Sunday, so the rhythm is similar. Lillestrom are without Vebjorn Hoff and Kristoffer Tonnessen, while Real Sociedad miss Yangel Herrera and Alvaro Odriozola, with Jon Aramburu and Luken Beitia also doubtful.

KEY MATCH FACTORS

- Both sides sit on one point after two Europa League games, with identical 2 goals for and 3 against.
- Lillestrom come in off a 2-0 win at Sandefjord, while Real Sociedad hammered Malaga 5-2.
- Felix Va has eight goals and five assists this season and is the home side's main threat.
- Oyarzabal scored twice last time out and Goncalo Guedes is expected to start after scoring off the bench.
- Real Sociedad have conceded in each of their last five matches, a worry for the visitors.

It's a genuine split: one model trusts the Basque quality, two trust the home edge. Read on for each case.

Predictions

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 61.8% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 61.8%

🏠 61.8% 🤝 11.6% ✈️ 26.6%

Lillestrom win at home as clear favourites

The aggregate numbers hide a clear separation in how these teams perform on the road versus at home. Real Sociedad's output away from home is the key variable for me. Their goals scored away and their goals per match as visitors don't match the picture painted by a 5-2 win in Malaga, because that kind of scoreline is an outlier rather than a baseline.

The goal difference per match is where the model finds its edge. Real Sociedad have conceded in every one of their last five games: 2-5 at Malaga was a win but still two goals against, and they also let in two in the win over Depor, two at Valencia, one at Union SG and two against Bournemouth. A side that leaks goals at that rate will struggle to control a match in Norway.

Lillestrom, by contrast, have scored in four of their last five and are stable at home. Their Europa League return of two goals for and three against matches the visitors exactly, so the gap isn't in European form but in the underlying rate of scoring away. I put the home side at 61.8%, with Real Sociedad at 26.6% and the draw only 11.6%. High confidence in a Lillestrom win.

✅ Correct Predicted Away — 54.2% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 54.2%

🏠 17.6% 🤝 28.2% ✈️ 54.2%

Real Sociedad to win away, with Lillestrom a long shot

Let's be blunt: sentiment is not a strategy. My numbers have Real Sociedad at 54.2%, the draw at 28.2% and Lillestrom at 17.6%. That's a moderate-confidence read, not a lock, but the gap is wide enough to ignore the romantic story about a Norwegian cup winner on a European night.

The interesting part is how the three outcomes separate. Real Sociedad over the draw is a comfortable gap, the draw over the home win is another comfortable gap, and that ladder is exactly what tells me the visitors are the logical side. A draw is possible, sure, but it's a hard result to land on, and Lillestrom winning is the least likely path by some distance.

People will point at the home result in Sandefjord and call it momentum. I'd call it a different league and a different opponent. The market doesn't care about vibes; it prices quality and consistency, and on that basis I lean Real Sociedad. Not with certainty, because 54.2% still leaves plenty of room for things to go wrong. But if you want the side the model respects, it's the Basques.

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 40.5% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 40.5%

🏠 40.5% 🤝 22.5% ✈️ 37.1%

Lillestrom edge it at home in a tight one

Honestly, this one feels closer than the name on the shirt suggests. Lillestrom are coming in with real confidence. They won 2-0 at Sandefjord on Sunday, and before that they went to Sparta Prague and came away with a 1-1 draw, which is not a bad result for a side nobody expected much from.

What I like is that they look sharp up front. Felix Va has been the one making things happen, and when a team has a clear go-to guy, it shows on the pitch. They're also at home, and Real Sociedad have struggled to turn good league form into European results. They've picked up just a point from two Europa League games and sit in the bottom half of the table.

That said, I'm not saying the Basques can't win. They're level on points with Lillestrom in this competition and just scored five against Malaga, so they can absolutely hurt anyone. It's very tight between the two, and a draw feels less likely than someone nicking it. I lean Lillestrom, but only slightly, and I wouldn't be shocked either way.