Who wins Celtic vs Celta?

Max Méndez (71.9%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (46.5%) predicts Home. Nico Campos (53.2%) predicts Home

What time is Celtic vs Celta?

Celtic vs Celta: 22 Oct 2026, 13:00 hrs. Liga Europa de la UEFA.

Liga Europa de la UEFA · 3

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Celtic Home

1 - 2

✈️

Celta Away

22 Oct 2026 · 13:00

Finished

Consensus: 0/3 correct ❌

Celtic vs Celta: Why the Models Back the Hoops at Celtic Park

Look at the Europa League table and you see two teams on zero points, both stumbling through their first two games. The easy read is a cagey, low-scoring draw between sides short on confidence. That is exactly what the surface narrative suggests, and it is exactly what the models refuse to buy.

What they see instead is a Celtic side whose European struggles are masking domestic dominance. Celtic arrive having thrashed Hearts 7-1 on Sunday, and they sit four points clear in Scotland. The European defeats to Ferencváros and Benfica hurt, but this is a different test: a Celta team shorn of several regulars and still searching for its first continental points. All three models land on a home win, and the draw barely registers in any of them.

The gap between the sides is not about pedigree, it is about where each one is being asked to perform. At Celtic Park, the numbers lean the hosts' way.

KEY MATCH FACTORS

- Home edge: all three models independently point to Celtic taking the three points in Glasgow.
- Draw is unlikely: the models give it between 4.2% and 22.7%, well below either side's chance.
- Momentum: Celtic's 7-1 win over Hearts shows the attack can overwhelm opponents when it clicks.
- Celta's depleted squad: Pablo Durán, Borja Iglesias, Carl Starfelt, Miguel Román and Jones El Abdellaoui are all expected to be missing.
- Both sides are winless in Europe, so neither can lean on league-phase confidence, which favours the team with the home crowd.

Celtic's defensive record in Europe is a real worry, and Celta did show goals against Rácing earlier this season. Still, the combination of home advantage and a thinner visiting squad tilts this firmly toward the Hoops. The models are not predicting a rout, but they are backing Celtic to find a way and open their European account.

Predictions

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 71.9% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 71.9%

🏠 71.9% 🤝 4.2% ✈️ 23.9%

Celtic as clear favourites to beat Celta

The numbers here are less ambiguous than the table suggests. Celtic's goal difference of -5 in Europe looks ugly, but it is driven by two heavy defeats, 3-1 to Ferencváros and 4-1 to Benfica, rather than by a persistent structural collapse. Celta are -2, and the more telling gap is in how each side has handled the grind of the competition.

Celtic's recent form reads two wins and three defeats, but the wins include a 2-0 at Motherwell and the 7-1 over Hearts, so the attacking output when facing weaker opposition is substantial. Celta's last five show a 5-0 over Rácing and a 2-1 over Alavés, yet also a 1-0 loss to Omonia and a 2-1 loss to Juventus, which highlights how little they have produced away from the comfort of familiar surroundings.

The home goals-against figure and goal difference at Celtic Park are the decisive variables in my model. Combined with the visitors' injury list, I assign Celtic 71.9%, with Celta at 23.9% and the draw at 4.2%. High confidence in Celtic, the draw is statistically marginal.

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 46.5% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 46.5%

🏠 46.5% 🤝 22.7% ✈️ 30.8%

Celtic win, and the draw is a mirage

Let's say the uncomfortable thing out loud: two teams on zero points does not automatically mean a stalemate. My model puts Celtic at 46.5%, the draw at 22.7% and Celta at 30.8%. That is a modest edge, not a landslide, and I am not pretending otherwise.

What I like is where the uncertainty sits. The draw is the least likely outcome, so anyone leaning on a boring 1-1 is paying for a story rather than a probability. The real fight is between a Celtic win and a Celta upset, and the numbers favour the hosts by a clear if unspectacular margin.

The market is nervous about Celtic's European form, and honestly that nervousness is priced in. Celta at 30.8% is competitive enough that I would not call this safe. But my model's key drivers, match dynamics, the favourite's probability and a healthy dose of market uncertainty, all tilt one way. I take Celtic with moderate confidence, with eyes open about the chaos baked into this fixture.

❌ Wrong Predicted Home — 53.2% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 53.2%

🏠 53.2% 🤝 19.2% ✈️ 27.6%

Celtic to edge it at home against Celta

I've been watching how these two have looked, and Celtic feel like the better bet here. Yes, they've lost both their Europa League games, but that Hearts game showed what they can do: 7-1 is not a fluke, that's a team that can really score when things click. They're also top of the Scottish table, which tells you the squad is in good shape overall.

Celta, meanwhile, are in a tough spot. They're also stuck on zero points in Europe, and they're missing a handful of regulars for this trip, which makes it harder to hold their shape away from home. Their league win over Alavés was nice, but travelling to Glasgow is a different kind of challenge.

What stands out to me is consistency. Celtic have been steadier at home than Celta have been on the road, and in a game this tight that matters. I think Celta can make it awkward and nick a goal, but I see Celtic doing just enough. Moderate confidence from me, because Celtic's European defending still worries me a bit.