Who wins Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht?

Max Méndez (39.6%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (44.7%) predicts Home. Nico Campos (41.8%) predicts Home

What time is Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht?

Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht: 15 Oct 2026, 13:00 hrs. Liga Europa de la UEFA.

Liga Europa de la UEFA · 2

🏠

Dinamo Zagreb Home

1 - 0

✈️

Anderlecht Away

15 Oct 2026 · 13:00

Finished

Consensus: 3/3 correct ✅

Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht: Europa League Coin Flip at Maksimir

There are matches where the data politely refuses to pick a winner. This is one of them. Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht meet at Stadion Maksimir on Thursday in a Europa League second-round fixture that looks, on paper, almost impossible to call.

Dinamo arrive stung by a 2-1 derby defeat to Hajduk Split at the weekend — a loss that will have hurt the home crowd's confidence. Their Europa League opener was a goalless draw against Hapoel Beer-Sheva, a result that kept them off the scoresheet and off the board. They have the home advantage and the historical edge over this opponent, but they'll need to be sharper in attack than they've shown recently.

Anderlecht, meanwhile, snatched a late 2-1 win at Cercle Brugge on Saturday — the kind of result that builds character but doesn't necessarily build confidence. They were outrun for large stretches of that game, and their opening Europa League defeat at home to Lyon revealed real defensive fragility. They've never lost at Maksimir in two previous visits, which is a curious but notable fact.

**KEY MATCH FACTORS:**
• Dinamo's home form and crowd support vs. Anderlecht's unbeaten record at this ground
• Anderlecht's defensive injury concerns — Biancone and Omobamidele both doubts
• Dinamo captain Josip Misic returning from domestic suspension could be decisive
• Anderlecht's ability to absorb pressure and hit on the counter, as shown vs. Cercle Brugge
• Both sides need points urgently after difficult opening rounds

This is a match where momentum, individual moments and defensive solidity will matter more than tactical masterplans. Expect a tight, edgy game where the margin between the three possible outcomes is razor-thin.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 39.6% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 39.6%

🏠 39.6% 🤝 22.4% ✈️ 38.0%

Dinamo Zagreb marginally ahead — defensive data keeps this wide open

The statistical picture here is unusually compressed. Dinamo Zagreb come in at 39.6% to win, Anderlecht at 38.0% — a gap of just 1.6 percentage points. That is not a prediction, that is a statistical tie with a slight directional lean.

What drives the model toward Dinamo, even narrowly, is the away wins data. Anderlecht's record of victories on the road in European competition this season is limited, and their goal difference of -1 after one game reflects a defensive unit that has already been breached twice — both by Lyon in a 22-minute spell that exposed how quickly they can be undone by direct, early pressure.

Dinamo's own attacking output has been underwhelming — zero goals in their Europa League opener — but their goals conceded figure is also zero, and the home context matters statistically. The goal difference gap between the sides is narrow but real.

Anderlecht's defensive injury situation compounds the concern. Losing aerial and positional cover at the back against a side that will press from the front at Maksimir is a tangible disadvantage. I lean Dinamo, but with 39.6% confidence, 'lean' is the operative word. This match is genuinely open.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 44.7% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 44.7%

🏠 44.7% 🤝 26.3% ✈️ 29.0%

Slight lean to Dinamo Zagreb, but the market isn't convinced either

Let me be blunt: the numbers don't lie, and right now they're shrugging. Dinamo Zagreb sit at 44.7% — that's not a favorite, that's a coin with a slightly heavier side. Anderlecht come in at 29.0%, and the draw at 26.3% means roughly 55% of the probability is split between outcomes that don't involve a Dinamo win.

The implicit probability on the home side reflects one thing the surface narrative misses: home advantage in European nights at Maksimir is a real, quantifiable factor that the market consistently prices in. Dinamo's recent wobbles don't erase that. The 'away possible but difficult' read isn't pessimism about Anderlecht — it's just math. At 29.0%, backing the visitors requires you to believe they're being undervalued by a meaningful margin, and right now there's no obvious reason to make that leap.

The draw at 26.3% is not something to dismiss either. Two teams who struggled to score in their Europa League openers, meeting in a high-stakes group game? Scoreless football is on the table. I lean Dinamo, but I'm not comfortable about it, and neither should you be.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 41.8% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 41.8%

🏠 41.8% 🤝 19.0% ✈️ 39.2%

Dinamo Zagreb to edge it, but Anderlecht can absolutely get something here

Honestly, this is one of those games where you watch the first 20 minutes and suddenly understand why nobody wanted to predict it. Dinamo are at home, they're angry after losing the derby, and they have history on their side against this opponent. That combination usually counts for something.

But Anderlecht aren't just making up the numbers. Yes, they lost to Lyon in their first Europa League game, but they've won three of their last five overall, and that late comeback at Cercle Brugge showed they don't fold when things get difficult. They've also never lost at this ground — two visits, one win, one draw. That's not a coincidence.

What tips the balance for me is the table. Dinamo have one point from one game, Anderlecht have zero. Dinamo need a win more desperately, and playing at home in front of their fans after a derby loss can either inspire a team or weigh them down. The points difference between the two sides is small, but Dinamo's position — needing to respond — gives them a slight edge in motivation. I lean Zagreb, but this is genuinely close.