Who wins Bélgica vs Turquía?

Max Méndez (44.0%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (59.1%) predicts Home. Nico Campos (51.5%) predicts Home

What time is Bélgica vs Turquía?

Bélgica vs Turquía: 02 Oct 2026, 12:45 hrs. Liga de Naciones UEFA.

Liga de Naciones UEFA · 3

🏠

Bélgica Home

3 - 0

✈️

Turquía Away

02 Oct 2026 · 12:45

Finished

Consensus: 3/3 correct ✅

Video analysis

Bélgica vs Turquía | Liga de Naciones UEFA J3

Belgium Will Beat Turkey: Three Models, One Verdict

The surface narrative says Belgium are wobbling. They beat Italy, then lost to France at home in the 88th minute. That single late goal has created a false impression of vulnerability. What the models actually see is a Belgian side with a positive goal difference, three points on the board, and a home fixture against a Turkish team that has conceded nine goals in two Nations League outings without earning a single point. The emotional context of Belgium's loss to France is noise. The structural reality of this matchup is not.

Turkey under Vincenzo Montella has been dismantled twice in quick succession — first 1-0 by France, then 4-1 by Italy just four days ago. That second result is particularly telling: Italy went three up in 27 minutes, and even after Turkey pulled one back, the response was immediate and clinical. Arda Güler has not been the decisive force Turkey needed, and their defensive record in this group is alarming. Belgium at home is a different proposition entirely from what Turkey has faced, but the direction of travel is clear.

Belgium, for their part, showed real quality in Rome — a 2-0 win against Italy was a statement. The home crowd at the Roi Baudouin stadium and the motivation to respond after the France defeat gives Van Bommel's side an emotional edge on top of the statistical one.

**KEY MATCH FACTORS**
- Turkey have conceded 9 goals in 2 Nations League games, scoring just 1
- Belgium beat Italy 2-0 away, demonstrating genuine attacking quality
- Belgium's home record and goal difference (+1) contrast sharply with Turkey's (-4)
- Turkey's only win in their last 5 came against the USA at the World Cup
- All three models point to Belgium, with probabilities ranging from 44% to 59.1%

This is not a complicated read. Belgium have clear structural and form advantages at home. Turkey need a result desperately, but nothing in their recent performances suggests they can produce one here.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 44.0% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 44.0%

🏠 44.0% 🤝 28.9% ✈️ 27.1%

Belgium win — home goals record and Turkey's defensive collapse are decisive

The data points in one direction here. Belgium have scored twice in their only home appearance this Nations League cycle and carry a goal difference of +1 from two games, including a 2-0 away win in Rome. That is a side generating goals and limiting damage. Turkey's numbers are the inverse: two games, five goals conceded, one scored, goal difference of -4. The defensive structure simply has not held against top-level opposition in this group.

Belgium's home goals record is the key factor for me. When Van Bommel's side plays in Brussels, they create and they convert. The Italian result demonstrated that this is not a team relying on defensive solidity alone — they can impose themselves going forward. Turkey, even with individual quality like Güler, have not been able to translate that into results or even defensive coherence.

I put Belgium's win probability at 44.0%, with the draw at 28.9% and Turkey at 27.1%. The draw and away win are close enough that I would not dismiss them entirely, but Belgium's home performance indicators and Turkey's goals-against record make the home win the most statistically supported outcome. The numbers lean Belgium.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 59.1% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 59.1%

🏠 59.1% 🤝 25.6% ✈️ 15.3%

Belgium win — market agrees and so do the numbers

The market has spoken and the numbers back it up without ambiguity. Belgium sit at 59.1% implied probability of winning this match. Turkey? A generous 15.3%. That gap — nearly 44 percentage points between the two sides — is not the kind of spread you see in a competitive fixture. This is a market telling you one team is significantly better than the other right now.

The draw sits at 25.6%, which is the only scenario worth acknowledging as a secondary possibility. But even that requires Turkey to defend far better than they have in their last two outings, and Belgium to be unusually wasteful in front of goal. The 44-point gap between home win and away win probability is the uncomfortable truth here: Turkey are not just the underdog, they are a team the market has essentially written off for this fixture.

Losing to France in the 88th minute does not change Belgium's structural quality. The smart money is not overreacting to one late goal. The numbers say Belgium win. I say Belgium win.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 51.5% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 51.5%

🏠 51.5% 🤝 23.0% ✈️ 25.6%

Belgium win at home — Turkey have nothing to suggest otherwise

Look at the table and look at the recent results — this one is pretty straightforward. Belgium have three points, a positive goal difference, and just beat Italy away from home. Turkey have zero points and have let in nine goals in two games. Nine. That is not a blip, that is a pattern.

What I keep coming back to is how Belgium performed in Rome. That was a proper away win against a decent Italian side, and it showed Van Bommel's team can be clinical when it matters. Yes, they lost to France, but that was a 0-0 until the 88th minute — it was not a performance that suggested Belgium are falling apart.

Turkey's only win in their last five games was against the USA at the World Cup. Since then, eliminated early, lost to Paraguay, lost to Australia, lost to France, and got taken apart 4-1 by Italy at home just days ago. Belgium at home, with something to prove after the France defeat, feels like a very tough ask for a Turkish side that has not found any answers defensively. I have Belgium winning this one with a fair amount of confidence.