Who wins LASK vs Liverpool?

Max Méndez (54.3%) predicts Away. Beto Casas (68.1%) predicts Away. Nico Campos (50.7%) predicts Away

What time is LASK vs Liverpool?

LASK vs Liverpool: 14 Oct 2026, 10:45 hrs. Liga de Campeones de la UEFA.

Liga de Campeones de la UEFA · 2

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LASK Home

3 - 6

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Liverpool Away

14 Oct 2026 · 10:45

Finished

Consensus: 3/3 correct ✅

Liverpool Win in Linz: The Numbers Back the Reds Despite a Depleted Squad

Liverpool Win in Linz: The Numbers Back the Reds Despite Depleted Squad

The surface narrative here is all about Liverpool's injury list and their 3-0 hammering at home to Manchester City last Sunday. What the models see — and what casual observers miss — is that the context around that City result is murkier than the scoreline suggests, and that LASK arrive at this fixture in genuinely poor shape, both in Europe and domestically.

LASK reached the Champions League proper for the first time through a remarkable comeback against Celtic, but that burst of momentum has completely evaporated. They've lost four straight competitive matches, including a 1-0 defeat to AEK Athens on Matchday 1, a derby loss to Sturm Graz, and a 2-0 defeat to Rapid Vienna at the weekend. Their record against English clubs reads one draw and five defeats across six attempts — and at home against English sides, they've conceded 11 goals in three games while scoring just four.

Liverpool, meanwhile, are in transition under Iraola. Szoboszlai, Gakpo and Isak are all doubtful, which is a significant chunk of attacking quality. But the Reds have won 19 of their last 22 Champions League group/league phase games, and they've never lost in Austria in a competitive fixture. The gap in pedigree and structural quality is simply too wide for LASK to bridge right now.

**KEY MATCH FACTORS**
- LASK's four-game winless run in competitive football, including a domestic loss at the weekend
- Liverpool's unbeaten competitive record in Austria (W4 D1)
- LASK have never beaten an English club (D1 L5 all-time)
- Liverpool's injury absences are real but their squad depth in midfield and wide areas remains strong
- Liverpool won 19 of their last 22 Champions League league-phase games

All three models land on Liverpool. The debate is about the margin, not the direction.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Away — 54.3% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 54.3%

🏠 24.5% 🤝 21.2% ✈️ 54.3%

Liverpool Win — Visiting Goal Momentum and GD Gap Are Decisive

Three factors drive my model to Liverpool here, and they're worth unpacking carefully.

First, the goal difference gap. After one league-phase game, Liverpool sit at +1 while LASK are at -1. That's a two-goal swing in a single match — a meaningful early divergence in a compact format where every result carries weight.

Second, Liverpool's visiting momentum in this competition. They've won their last three away league-phase matches, and their goals-for tally on the road has been consistently positive. Two goals scored against Atletico Madrid on Matchday 1 is a concrete data point, not a narrative.

Third, LASK's recent form in European competition is historically poor: one win in 13 European games, and nine consecutive group/league-phase games without a win. That's not a slump, that's a structural ceiling.

My model gives Liverpool 54.3% to win, LASK 24.5%, and the draw 21.2%. The draw is not negligible, but Liverpool's visiting goal output and the Austrian side's inability to perform at this level consistently make the away win the statistically sound call.

✅ Correct Predicted Away — 68.1% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 68.1%

🏠 19.8% 🤝 12.2% ✈️ 68.1%

Liverpool Win — Market Says 68.1%, and the Market Is Right

Let me be blunt: the injury noise around Liverpool is exactly that — noise. My model prices Liverpool at 68.1% to win this match. LASK? A generous 19.8%. The draw sits at 12.2%, which tells you everything you need to know about how little the market respects a stalemate here.

The uncomfortable truth is that LASK's home advantage is largely theoretical against English opposition. Their historical record in these matchups is a disaster, and nothing in their current form — four straight losses across competitions — suggests a turnaround is coming against a Liverpool side that, depleted or not, operates at a fundamentally different level in Europe.

Some will point to Liverpool's City result as a momentum killer. I don't buy it. That match was played under extraordinary circumstances, and a red card changed the game entirely. The probability gap between Liverpool winning and LASK winning is nearly 50 percentage points. You don't fade a 68.1% shot because of one bad Sunday. Liverpool to win, no hesitation.

✅ Correct Predicted Away — 50.7% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 50.7%

🏠 32.8% 🤝 16.6% ✈️ 50.7%

Liverpool Win — LASK's Record Against English Clubs Says It All

Look, I get why people are talking about Liverpool's injury problems. Losing Szoboszlai, Gakpo and possibly Isak in the same week is rough. But then you look at LASK's table — one game played, zero points, already on a four-game losing streak in competitive football — and it's hard to make a case for the Austrian side.

What really stands out to me is that LASK have never beaten an English club. Not once in six attempts. And at home against English opposition, they've let in 11 goals in three games. That's not just bad luck, that's a pattern.

Liverpool beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 on Matchday 1 and have three points already. They know what it takes to win in this competition, even when they're not at full strength. LASK showed heart against Celtic in the play-offs, but that was a one-off. Right now they look like a team running on empty. Liverpool to win in Linz.