Depor vs Levante: Three Models, Three Different Verdicts in LaLiga Round 9
Depor vs Levante: Three Models, Three Different Verdicts in LaLiga Round 9
Friday afternoon at Riazor brings a fixture where nobody agrees, not even our own models. Depor sit on 10 points after a heartbreaking 3-2 loss in San Sebastián, where they clawed back from 3-0 down against ten men and still came up short. Levante, on 6 points, arrive off a 3-3 thriller with Sevilla in which an injury-time equaliser rescued a point.
On paper, the two teams look like mirror images in form: both have one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five. But the profiles differ. Depor are tight and tidy (12 scored, 11 conceded), while Levante are chaotic, scoring 11 but shipping 15 in seven games. That is exactly where the models split. One sees the home side's slight edge, one trusts Levante's points haul on the road, and one reads this as a stalemate waiting to happen.
The history adds spice: Levante won both league meetings in the Segunda days, 2-1 and 2-1 in reverse, while the last two top-flight meetings back in 2017 and 2018 both ended 2-2.
KEY MATCH FACTORS
- Depor have 10 points from 8 games against Levante's 6 from 7, with a goal difference of +1 versus -4.
- Levante have conceded 15 goals in seven matches, a defensive leak that keeps every game open.
- Depor's late comeback attempt in Anoeta showed fight, but they have now lost two of their last five.
- Levante's last two outings produced six goals for them, including that 3-3 against Sevilla, so they will score.
- Head-to-head is tight: Levante won the last two meetings, while the previous two were 2-2 draws.
The probabilities are close in every model, so this is no banker. Depor have the home edge on one reading, Levante the form on another, and the draw lurks as the most likely single outcome on a third. Three views, one genuinely open game.
