Who wins Celta vs Alavés?

Max Méndez (63.7%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (42.2%) predicts Home. Nico Campos (66.2%) predicts Home

What time is Celta vs Alavés?

Celta vs Alavés: 18 Oct 2026, 08:15 hrs. LaLiga.

LaLiga · 9

🏠

Celta Home

2 - 1

✈️

Alavés Away

18 Oct 2026 · 08:15

Finished

Consensus: 3/3 correct ✅

Celta vs Alavés: why the models back the home side despite a shaky start

On paper, this looks like a coin flip with a hint of trouble for the home side. Celta have one win in eight, five draws, and a 0-0 at Elche that left them looking flat after the international break. Alavés, meanwhile, sit on 11 points with the better goal difference. So why do all three models land on a Celta win?

Because the models are reading the underlying profile rather than the headline. Celta have conceded just six goals in eight games, and their one big statement, a 5-0 win over Rácing, shows what this side can do when it clicks at home. Alavés have lost three of their last five, including a narrow defeat to Atlético where a red card and a late header decided it. They are leaking points away from home, and that matters here.

The real unknown is Celta's legs. They played Juventus in the Europa League on Thursday (a 1-2 defeat) and then travel no further than their own ground on Sunday, but with only three days between matches, rotation and freshness are fair questions. The models still see enough home edge to back them.

KEY MATCH FACTORS
- Celta's home attacking record is the strongest signal across the models.
- Alavés' away form and goals conceded on the road are a weak spot.
- Celta's defence has only let in six goals in eight league games.
- Alavés arrive off three defeats in their last five, the latest a 1-2 loss to Atlético.
- Celta have a short turnaround after Thursday's Europa League tie, a genuine risk to monitor.

The head-to-head is mixed, with Alavés winning 4-3 at Balaídos last March, so this will not be a stroll. But the numbers lean clearly toward Celta, and that is where the models land.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 63.7% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 63.7%

🏠 63.7% 🤝 20.6% ✈️ 15.7%

Celta win, driven by home scoring and Alavés' away defence

Two numbers frame my read. Celta have scored 8 and conceded 6 across eight league games, a +2 goal difference that hides how much better they look at Balaídos than away from it. Their home scoring output is the main reason I land on a home win.

On the other side, Alavés' goals conceded as the visiting team is the weak link. They are +4 overall at 12 scored and 8 against, but that record leans on a 5-2 win over Osasuna, and since then they have taken only one point from their last four league games before the Atlético defeat.

The draw is possible, given Celta's five stalemates this season, but I rate it below a home win because Celta's goals at home and the visitor's defensive record both point the same way. The short turnaround after Thursday's Europa League match is a real variable on squad rotation, but it does not change my direction. I favour Celta with high confidence, and my model gives them 63.7% against 20.6% for the draw and 15.7% for Alavés.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 42.2% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 42.2%

🏠 42.2% 🤝 34.1% ✈️ 23.8%

Celta win: a modest edge the market underrates

Let's be blunt: nobody is falling in love with Celta right now. One win in eight, a goalless draw at Elche, a Europa League loss on Thursday. The narrative is ugly. But I don't trade narratives, I trade numbers, and my model puts Celta at 42.2%, the draw at 34.1% and Alavés at 23.8%.

That is not a landslide, and I won't pretend otherwise. The draw at 34.1% is a live outcome, and Celta have drawn five of eight, so the market's uncertainty here is earned. What I see is a gap between how unattractive Celta look and how weak the visitor's implied chance really is. Alavés at 23.8% is the long shot in this three-way split, and the model treats them accordingly.

So my lean is Celta, with moderate confidence. It is a slight edge, not a lock. If you wanted comfort, you picked the wrong match. If you wanted the least bad side, the numbers point home.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 66.2% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 66.2%

🏠 66.2% 🤝 13.7% ✈️ 20.1%

Celta to win at home, and I'm fairly confident

I know Celta's season has been bumpy, but when I look at what's actually happened on the pitch, I still like them here. They crushed Rácing 5-0 at home, and that showed the ceiling this team has in front of its own fans. At Balaídos they look like a different side from the one that went flat at Elche.

Alavés have had a rough spell. They've lost three of their last five and just went down 1-2 to Atlético after a red card and a late header. They've been hard to read on the road, and I don't see them arriving with much momentum.

Sure, Celta played Juventus on Thursday and lost, and that's a fair worry for fresh legs. But the table and the recent games both say the home side has the advantage in points collected at home and the visitor has struggled away. I'm backing Celta to get the win, and I feel good about it.