Who wins Real Sociedad vs Depor?

Max Méndez (41.5%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (58.5%) predicts Home. Nico Campos (76.5%) predicts Home

What time is Real Sociedad vs Depor?

Real Sociedad vs Depor: 11 Oct 2026, 08:15 hrs. LaLiga.

LaLiga · 8

🏠

Real Sociedad Home

3 - 2

✈️

Depor Away

11 Oct 2026 · 08:15

Finished

Consensus: 3/3 correct ✅

Real Sociedad Win: The Numbers Back a Home Victory Despite Misleading Standings

Look at the standings and you'll see two teams level on 10 points after seven games. That symmetry is where the surface narrative ends. Dig deeper and the picture shifts considerably in Real Sociedad's favour.

Depor's record is built on draws — four of their seven points have come from stalemates — and crucially, they haven't won a single away game this season. Their positive goal difference (+2) flatters a side that has been conservative rather than dangerous on the road. Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have been volatile but potent at home, scoring freely when they commit to attack. Their dramatic 2-3 win at Valencia in Round 7 showed a team capable of winning ugly and winning late — exactly the kind of mentality that matters in tight home fixtures.

The international break adds an interesting layer. Both squads head into this match with over three weeks since their last competitive action, so momentum is reset rather than carried. What remains is structure, quality and home advantage — all of which point toward the hosts at the Reale Arena.

Depor did show character against Betis, coming back from a goal down in the 87th minute, but that resilience was tested at home in Riazor. Travelling to San Sebastián is a different proposition entirely.

**KEY MATCH FACTORS**
- Real Sociedad's home record is significantly stronger than their overall season numbers suggest
- Depor have zero away wins in seven rounds — a pattern that is hard to ignore
- Real Sociedad's goal difference (-4) is inflated by heavy defeats; their attacking output at home tells a better story
- The international break neutralises any short-term form advantage either side might have held
- Depor's positive goal difference (+2) comes largely from home games, not away performances

All three models land on a Real Sociedad win, and the reasons are clear: home advantage, superior individual quality, and a Depor side that simply hasn't shown it can win on the road.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 41.5% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 41.5%

🏠 41.5% 🤝 37.1% ✈️ 21.3%

Real Sociedad Win — Defensive Fragility Masked by Goal Difference

The headline stat that shapes my view: Real Sociedad have conceded 13 goals in seven games — the second-highest in this sample — yet they've scored nine and won three at home. That combination of leakiness and attacking output means games here tend to be open, which suits a home side with better individual quality. My model gives Real Sociedad 41.5%, the draw 37.1%, and Depor 21.3% — closer than the other models, but still a clear lean toward the hosts. Depor's goals-against column (8 conceded) is tidy, but their away record is non-existent in terms of wins. The key factors driving my output are Real Sociedad's goals scored at home, their home win count, and the fact that their defensive numbers — while poor overall — are partly a product of playing open, high-scoring games rather than systemic collapse. Depor will make this competitive, but the combination of home goals scored and home victories gives Real Sociedad the statistical edge.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 58.5% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 58.5%

🏠 58.5% 🤝 24.4% ✈️ 17.0%

Real Sociedad Win — Market Agrees and So Do the Numbers

The market isn't confused here. My numbers put Real Sociedad at 58.5%, the draw at 24.4%, and Depor at a barely-relevant 17.0%. That gap between the visitor winning and the draw is over seven points — not a coin flip, not a close call. The uncomfortable truth is that Depor's 10 points look respectable until you realise how many of them came at home and how many came from not losing rather than actually winning. Their implied probability of taking three points from the Reale Arena is genuinely low. The draw is the only real alternative scenario worth entertaining, and even that sits at less than a quarter of the probability pie. Real Sociedad are not in brilliant form by any stretch, but this market is pricing in a home win for good reason. Backing the draw as a hedge makes marginal sense; backing Depor to win outright makes almost none. The 58.5% favourite is the play.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 76.5% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 76.5%

🏠 76.5% 🤝 16.5% ✈️ 7.0%

Real Sociedad Win — Home Advantage and Class Should Be Enough

When you look at the table and see both teams on 10 points, it feels like a 50-50 match. But watch how they got those points and the story changes fast. Depor have drawn four times — they're a team that doesn't lose much but doesn't win much either, especially away from home. Real Sociedad have been inconsistent, sure, but they showed at Valencia that they know how to find a winner when it matters. That late Barrenetxea goal was not lucky — it was a team that kept believing. At home in San Sebastián, with their own crowd behind them, they're a different animal. Depor haven't won a single away game this season, and coming to the Reale Arena after an international break without that momentum is a tough ask. I don't see them changing that record here. Real Sociedad have too much quality in the final third, and home advantage is real in this fixture. Comfortable home win is my call.