Who wins Sevilla vs Osasuna?

Max Méndez (47.5%) predicts Home. Beto Casas (43.5%) predicts Home. Nico Campos (47.2%) predicts Home

What time is Sevilla vs Osasuna?

Sevilla vs Osasuna: 26 Oct 2026, 14:00 hrs. LaLiga.

LaLiga · 10

🏠

Sevilla Home

2 - 0

✈️

Osasuna Away

26 Oct 2026 · 14:00

Finished

Consensus: 3/3 correct ✅

Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction: Why Sevilla Are the Pick Despite the Bernabéu Beating

The headline from Sevilla's last outing is a 4-1 loss at the Bernabéu. The headline from Osasuna's is a 2-0 win over Racing and a fresh start under Jagoba Arrasate. On the surface, that reads like momentum swinging toward Pamplona. All three of our models see it differently, and they agree on Sevilla.

Here's what the surface misses. Sevilla's defeat came against Real Madrid in Madrid, in a match where they competed well and, by most accounts, had the refereeing calls go against them. Osasuna's win was a home result against a side fighting just above the relegation zone, and it only ended a drought of a month and a half. One good afternoon doesn't erase a goal difference of -8 and 18 goals conceded in nine games.

Sevilla sit on 14 points with 14 scored and 16 conceded. Osasuna have 11 points, 10 scored and 18 conceded. The gap is modest, but it's consistent across the numbers that matter, and the match is at the Sánchez-Pizjuán, where Sevilla have the edge in home production.

There's a caveat: this isn't a lock. The head-to-head is tight, with Osasuna winning the last meeting 2-1 in April and three of the last five ending level or by a single goal. The models lean Sevilla, but nobody should expect a comfortable night.

KEY MATCH FACTORS
- Sevilla have a clear goal difference edge (-2 vs -8) over a leaky Osasuna defence
- Osasuna's 18 goals conceded is the most worrying number on the page
- Sevilla's home scoring output is the backbone of all three models
- The Madrid loss was four days before a short turnaround, but with kickoff on 26 October the legs are fully recovered
- Arrasate's new-era boost is real, but it's one win against a struggling side

Bottom line: Sevilla are the sensible pick, with a draw as the real danger. The models back the hosts without pretending this is a walkover.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 47.5% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 47.5%

🏠 47.5% 🤝 30.0% ✈️ 22.5%

Sevilla win: home record and Osasuna's away goal problem

The data points toward Sevilla for a few concrete reasons. Osasuna's goal difference of -8 is the key number: 18 conceded in nine matches, and 10 scored, means they're operating well below Sevilla's output of 14 for and 16 against.

My model weights Osasuna's scoring away from home heavily, and that's where they're limited. Their recent form shows a side that conceded four to Atlético, five to Betis and went scoreless against Espanyol. The 2-0 over Racing is an outlier in an otherwise defensively fragile run.

On the other side, Sevilla's home goals and home wins drive the projection. They've been competitive even in defeat, and their attacking numbers hold up better than their results suggest. The 4-1 at Madrid is a context-heavy fixture and shouldn't be read as a collapse.

I have Sevilla at 47.5%, the draw at 30.0% and Osasuna at 22.5%. That's a lean, not a certainty. The draw remains live given the history between these sides, with three of the last five meetings decided by one goal or level. But if a side breaks the stalemate, the underlying numbers favour Sevilla.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 43.5% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 43.5%

🏠 43.5% 🤝 30.7% ✈️ 25.8%

Sevilla win: 43.5% and the market quietly agrees

Let's be blunt: nobody gets excited about 43.5%. But that's where my model lands for Sevilla, against 30.7% for the draw and 25.8% for Osasuna. It's an edge, not a revelation.

The uncomfortable truth is that the market will be tempted by the Osasuna feel-good story. New coach, first win in six weeks, and Sevilla fresh off a 4-1 loss. That's the kind of narrative that moves opinion, and narratives are exactly where value gets distorted. I don't price stories. I price probability.

What stands out is the spread between the draw and the visitor. Osasuna at 25.8% sits meaningfully below the 30.7% draw, which tells me the most likely way Osasuna avoid defeat is through a stalemate, not by winning outright. Even so, I wouldn't dismiss them entirely, because a 25.8% outcome lands roughly one time in four.

So the read is simple. Sevilla are the most likely result at 43.5%, but over half the probability sits elsewhere. If you want certainty, you're in the wrong business. I lean Sevilla, I respect the draw, and I refuse to pretend this is more than it is.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 47.2% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 47.2%

🏠 47.2% 🤝 27.5% ✈️ 25.3%

Sevilla to win at home, with Osasuna still a threat

I watched Sevilla at the Bernabéu and honestly came away impressed with how they played, even in a 4-1 loss. They were organised, found ways out of Madrid's pressing and kept fighting. It was a rough scoreline, but not a team falling apart.

Osasuna's win over Racing was a good, energetic performance, with lots of wide play and plenty of chances, and Arrasate's return clearly lifted the mood. Still, they needed a penalty and a late goal to beat a side near the bottom, and had two goals ruled out for offside along the way.

Looking at the table, Sevilla have 14 points to Osasuna's 11, and the visitors have struggled to pick up results lately, with just one win in their last five. Sevilla's recent run isn't glowing either, but their points tally and home setting give them the edge.

I'd say Sevilla get it done, though I wouldn't be shocked if it's tight. Osasuna have beaten them before, including in April, so this isn't a free three points. I lean Sevilla, with a bit of caution.