Who wins Ipswich vs Nottingham?

Max Méndez (54.7%) predicts Away. Beto Casas (41.8%) predicts Away. Nico Campos (39.9%) predicts Draw

What time is Ipswich vs Nottingham?

Ipswich vs Nottingham: 23 Oct 2026, 13:00 hrs. Premier League.

Premier League · 8

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Ipswich Home

1 - 1

✈️

Nottingham Away

23 Oct 2026 · 13:00

Finished

Consensus: 1/3 correct

Ipswich vs Nottingham: Two Winless-Looking Sides, Three Different Verdicts

Ipswich versus Nottingham on Friday is not a glamour tie, but it has a hook: our three models cannot agree on how it ends. Two see Nottingham nicking it, one sees the points being shared, and nobody is fully convinced.

Both sides arrive with the same goal difference of -4 after seven games, yet they got there in very different ways. Ipswich have scored 11 and conceded 15, a loose, open team that just lost 3-2 at Manchester City despite a late penalty. Nottingham have scored only 5 and conceded 9, and just fell 1-0 to Arsenal after a decent shift without a goal to show for it.

That contrast is the whole argument. One perspective sees Ipswich's leaky defence as the deciding weakness against a side that has at least been tight. Another looks at the table, where Ipswich have 9 points to Nottingham's 5, and refuses to rule out the home side or the stalemate. The third leans on the market read, which sees Nottingham slightly ahead but with the draw hovering close.

KEY MATCH FACTORS

- Ipswich have conceded 15 goals in 7 games, a worrying number at home.
- Nottingham have scored just 5 goals all season, so finishing is their real problem.
- Ipswich hold a 4-point edge in the table (9 to 5) despite the identical goal difference.
- Both teams played last weekend (17 and 18 October), so short-turnaround freshness is level.
- Recent history favours the visitors, who won 2-4 and 1-0 in the last Premier League meetings.

The draw has a real case, but the lean among the models is toward Nottingham, with Ipswich's defence the main reason. The three breakdowns below show exactly where each one stands.

Predictions

❌ Wrong Predicted Away — 54.7% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 54.7%

🏠 17.0% 🤝 28.3% ✈️ 54.7%

Nottingham the likelier winner as Ipswich's defence leaks

The numbers point to Nottingham, and the clearest driver is Ipswich's goals against. They have conceded 15 in seven matches, over two per game, and that is the baseline problem for a home side trying to control a fixture.

Nottingham's profile is the reverse: 9 conceded, a markedly tighter unit. Their issue is output, with only 5 scored, but the goals-for gap between the sides matters less than it looks because Ipswich's defensive record gives Nottingham chances to turn a low-scoring side into a winning one. The goal-difference gap is actually level at -4 each, so the edge comes from how those totals are built, not the net figure.

Recent form supports a cautious reading. Ipswich have lost three of their last five and shipped 3, 1, 4 and 2 in their defeats, while Nottingham's losses were narrower, mostly by one goal. Head to head, the visitors won 4-2 and 1-0 in their last two league meetings.

My model puts Nottingham at 54.7%, the draw at 28.3% and Ipswich at 17.0%. The draw is possible but a difficult outcome given how open Ipswich play. I lean Nottingham with moderate confidence.

❌ Wrong Predicted Away — 41.8% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 41.8%

🏠 23.3% 🤝 34.9% ✈️ 41.8%

Nottingham get the nod, but the draw is lurking at 34.9%

Let's be blunt: nobody here is a lock. My model gives Nottingham 41.8%, the draw 34.9% and Ipswich 23.3%. That is a modest edge, not a gift, and anyone calling it a certainty is selling something.

What drives it? Mostly the gap between the away win and the draw. Nottingham's 41.8% sits comfortably above the 34.9% for a stalemate, so the visitors are the better single outcome, but only by a margin you could lose in one deflected shot. The favourite's probability is not dominant enough to call this comfortable.

Ipswich at 23.3% is the number that stands out. The home side is the clear underdog in my read, which is uncomfortable for a team that just scored twice at the Etihad. Scoring against City does not change the maths on a match like this one.

So I lean Nottingham, with moderate confidence. If you want to back a side, back the one with the highest number. If you want to sleep well, remember the draw is only about seven points behind. I report the figures, I do not promise outcomes.

✅ Correct Predicted Draw — 39.9% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 39.9%

🏠 27.0% 🤝 39.9% ✈️ 33.1%

Draw looks likeliest as Ipswich and Nottingham cancel out

I'm going with a draw here, and honestly my confidence is low. Watching these two, neither side feels like it has the other's number.

Ipswich have been fun to watch. They hit City for two on Saturday and they've got 9 points from seven games, which puts them ahead of Nottingham. They score goals, but they also let plenty in, and that keeps every game a bit of a scrap.

Nottingham are the opposite problem. Five points from seven and just five goals scored tells you they struggle to finish chances. Against Arsenal they were right in it for most of the game and still came away with nothing. That kind of team can easily nick a draw away from home without really winning it.

The visitors' lack of points and the home side's shaky defending kind of balance each other out, so a shared point makes sense to me. I give Ipswich 27.0% and Nottingham 33.1% in my head, but the draw at 39.9% edges both. Not a bold pick, just the one that fits what I've seen on the pitch.