Who wins Hull vs Everton?

Max Méndez (38.9%) predicts Draw. Beto Casas (41.4%) predicts Away. Nico Campos (51.2%) predicts Away

What time is Hull vs Everton?

Hull vs Everton: 11 Oct 2026, 07:00 hrs. Premier League.

Premier League · 6

🏠

Hull Home

2 - 2

✈️

Everton Away

11 Oct 2026 · 07:00

Finished

Consensus: 1/3 correct

Hull vs Everton: Two Models See Toffees, One Sees a Stalemate

Three predictions. Two different conclusions. That's the setup for Hull vs Everton on Sunday, and it tells you something important about this fixture: it's not as straightforward as the table might suggest.

Everton arrive unbeaten through five Premier League games — two wins, three draws — and carrying real momentum from a dominant cup run. David Moyes has built something defensively solid, with just three goals conceded all season, and players like Tyler Dibling and Thierno Barry giving them genuine attacking threat. On paper, they look like the comfortable away side.

But Hull aren't a pushover. Sergej Jakirović's side sit on eight points, have already held Chelsea and Aston Villa, and showed they can hurt good teams on the road. Yes, they lost at Newcastle, but they were competitive until the final whistle. At home, they'll believe they can make life difficult.

The disagreement between the models comes down to one core question: does Everton's quality and consistency translate into a road win, or does Hull's home structure force a share of the spoils?

**KEY MATCH FACTORS**
- Everton are unbeaten in five Premier League games, with a +3 goal difference
- Hull have conceded just four league goals — defensively they're no pushovers
- Everton's away record includes a draw at Bournemouth and a 0-0 at Tottenham
- Hull's last home league game ended 0-0 vs Aston Villa
- Head-to-head history slightly favours Everton, though the 2016 meeting at Hull ended 2-2

Two models see Everton as the most likely outcome. One sees the stats pointing to a draw. The gap between those views isn't huge — and that's exactly what makes this worth watching closely.

Predictions

✅ Correct Predicted Draw — 38.9% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 38.9%

🏠 25.3% 🤝 38.9% ✈️ 35.9%

Draw the slight lean — Everton's away goals tell a cautious story

The case for a draw here is built on what Everton have actually done away from home, not what their overall record suggests. Their away goal output has been modest — draws at Bournemouth and Tottenham, both low-scoring affairs. When I factor in goals scored on the road, goals conceded on the road, and away wins specifically, the picture that emerges is a team that travels well defensively but doesn't consistently impose itself offensively away from Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Hull, meanwhile, have kept things tight at home. Four goals conceded in five games across the season, and their home fixture against Aston Villa ended goalless. That structural discipline is relevant.

My model sits the draw at 38.9%, with Everton at 35.9% — a gap of just three percentage points. That's effectively a coin flip between those two outcomes. Hull at 25.3% are the least likely result, but not negligible for a side with home advantage and a settled defensive shape.

I lean draw, but I want to be clear: this is a low-confidence call. The data doesn't point to a clear winner — it points to a tight, low-scoring match where the most likely single outcome is neither side breaking through.

❌ Wrong Predicted Away — 41.4% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 41.4%

🏠 29.8% 🤝 28.8% ✈️ 41.4%

Everton to win, but the market isn't handing this one out

Let me be blunt: the numbers here are not a green light, they're a yellow one. My model puts Everton at 41.4%, Hull at 29.8%, and the draw at 28.8%. That's not a dominant favourite — that's a slight edge in a three-way split where the other two outcomes combine for nearly 59% of the probability space.

What the market sees is a visiting side that hasn't lost all season against a newly promoted club that's been decent but hasn't really been tested by a team with Everton's defensive discipline and attacking options. The gap between Everton winning and Hull winning is meaningful — roughly 12 points of probability — but the gap between Everton winning and the draw is barely 13 points. That's thin.

If you're looking for a comfortable lean, Everton is it. If you're expecting certainty, look elsewhere. The model picks the Toffees, and I'll go with it — but anyone pretending this is a lock is selling something.

❌ Wrong Predicted Away — 51.2% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 51.2%

🏠 17.1% 🤝 31.7% ✈️ 51.2%

Everton the pick — form and table back the visitors

Honestly, looking at this one from what we've seen on the pitch, Everton feel like the right call. They're sitting on nine points, they haven't lost a single game this season, and they've been doing it the right way — grinding results, keeping clean sheets, and with Barry looking sharp up front.

Hull have had some decent moments — that Chelsea draw was genuinely impressive — but their recent form has been a bit mixed. A loss at Newcastle, a cup exit at Sunderland, and a home 0-0 against Villa doesn't exactly scream 'ready to beat an in-form top-half side.'

Everton's away trips to Tottenham and Bournemouth showed they know how to handle hostile environments without losing their shape. I don't see Hull having enough to break them down at home.

My lean is Everton, with a 51.2% probability in my read of it. The draw is very much alive at 31.7%, so don't be shocked if it ends level — but if I'm picking one outcome, it's the Toffees taking the three points.