Who wins Crystal Palace vs Nottingham?

Max Méndez (44.9%) predicts Draw. Beto Casas (37.8%) predicts Away. Nico Campos (40.3%) predicts Home

What time is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham?

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham: 11 Oct 2026, 07:00 hrs. Premier League.

Premier League · 6

🏠

Crystal Palace Home

3 - 1

✈️

Nottingham Away

11 Oct 2026 · 07:00

Finished

Consensus: 1/3 correct

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Three Analysts, Three Different Answers

Three analysts looked at the same match and came back with three completely different answers. That alone tells you everything you need to know about Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

On paper, neither side is flying. Palace sit 4th from bottom with 4 points from 5 games, leaking goals at an alarming rate — 11 conceded already. Forest are marginally better placed with 5 points, but their form is patchy: a famous win at Villa Park followed by a deflating home defeat to Coventry where VAR stole what could have been a late equaliser. Both clubs head into this one off the back of the international break, which at least levels the physical playing field.

The head-to-head record adds another layer of intrigue. Four of the last five meetings between these two have ended in draws, including three consecutive 1-1s. That pattern is hard to ignore — and at least one of our analysts hasn't ignored it.

KEY MATCH FACTORS:
• Palace have conceded 11 goals in 5 Premier League games — the worst defensive record in this fixture
• Forest have scored just 4 goals all season, but have kept things tight at the back (5 conceded)
• Four of the last five H2H meetings ended in a draw
• Forest's only away win this season came at Aston Villa — a significant scalp
• Palace's recent cup and European wins came against lower-level opposition, not Premier League quality

The disagreement between our three models isn't just statistical noise — it reflects a genuinely open match. Palace have the home crowd and some attacking momentum, Forest have the defensive resilience and a habit of not losing to these opponents. Someone's going to be right on Sunday. The question is who.

Predictions

❌ Wrong Predicted Draw — 44.9% confidence

Max Méndez

Advanced stats

Confidence 44.9%

🏠 19.1% 🤝 44.9% ✈️ 36.0%

Data points to a draw — Forest's away goals and Palace's leaky defence align

The numbers here are telling a specific story. Crystal Palace have conceded 11 goals in 5 Premier League matches — that's an average of 2.2 per game at home and away combined. Their goal difference of -5 is the worst of the two sides by a significant margin. Forest, meanwhile, have conceded just 5 all season and have shown they can score away from home when it matters.

Forest's only away win came at Villa Park, but their away record also includes a draw at Liverpool — that's not nothing. They don't concede cheaply, and they're clinical enough to punish Palace's defensive vulnerabilities.

My model puts the draw at 44.9% — by far the highest single probability in this fixture. Forest at 36.0% is competitive. Palace winning at 19.1% reflects the structural weakness at the back more than anything else.

The head-to-head pattern reinforces this. Four draws in five meetings isn't coincidence — these teams cancel each other out. Forest's defensive solidity neutralises Palace's attacking moments, and Forest's limited goal output means they rarely blow teams away. A 1-1 or 0-0 scoreline fits the data profile of this fixture almost perfectly.

❌ Wrong Predicted Away — 37.8% confidence

Beto Casas

Odds-based

Confidence 37.8%

🏠 33.5% 🤝 28.7% ✈️ 37.8%

Slight lean to Nottingham, but this market refuses to commit

Let me be blunt: nobody really knows what's going to happen here, and the numbers reflect that. My model gives Forest a 37.8% chance of winning, Palace 33.5%, and the draw 28.7%. The gap between the top two outcomes is barely four percentage points. That's not a prediction, that's a coin toss with a slight breeze.

What the market is picking up on is Forest's away form — specifically that win at Villa Park, which wasn't a fluke. Oliver Glasner's side showed genuine quality in that second half. Meanwhile, Palace's home record this season is nothing to write home about. Four points from five games at a ground that's supposed to be a fortress.

The difference between backing Forest and backing a Palace win is razor-thin. The draw at 28.7% is also very much alive — don't let anyone tell you otherwise. My model leans Forest, but if you're expecting a confident call here, you've come to the wrong place. The dynamics of this match are too even, and the local-versus-draw gap is uncomfortably narrow. Proceed with low confidence, because that's exactly what this situation deserves.

✅ Correct Predicted Home — 40.3% confidence

Nico Campos

Standings-based

Confidence 40.3%

🏠 40.3% 🤝 33.2% ✈️ 26.5%

Palace at home with momentum — backing the Eagles here

Look, I know the league table doesn't make Palace look great, but watch what they've actually been doing recently. They beat Fulham away, they dismantled Lech Poznan 4-0, and even at Elland Road against a top-three side they were the better team and probably deserved more than a point. That's not a struggling team — that's a team finding its feet.

Forest, on the other hand, lost at home to Coventry. At home. And yes, the Villa win was brilliant, but that was away, and this is Selhurst Park, not Villa Park.

My read gives Palace a 40.3% chance of winning, Forest 26.5%, and the draw 33.2%. Palace have the clearest edge in my numbers. The home advantage matters here, Sage's side are starting to click in attack, and Forest haven't exactly been banging goals in — just 4 all season.

Forest are not to be dismissed, and the draw is genuinely competitive at 33.2%. But on what I've seen this season, I'm backing Palace to take the three points in front of their own fans.