Everton vs Newcastle: EFL Cup Fourth Round Is Too Close to Call

I give Newcastle the narrowest of advantages, with a 41.2% chance against 33.6% for Everton and 25.3% for the draw. That's a lean, not a verdict.

The key signal for me is Newcastle's recent away output. They just won 2-0 at Palace, and their wins in the last five both came in games where they scored first. The visitor's win rate carries real weight in my model, and their form line of two wins and three losses is dragged down by the heavy defeats at Leeds and Coventry, both four-goal losses that I treat as outliers rather than a trend.

Everton's picture is different. They've scored only twice in their last four league matches and have been shut out in two of them. Against that, they beat Wolves 1-0 in this competition and have won two of the last three head-to-heads against Newcastle, including the 3-2 in February.

Goals per game at home is where Everton could close the gap, because their attack has shown flashes through Dibling and Barry. Still, with a 7.6-point gap between the top two outcomes, this stays competitive. A draw sitting at 25.3% means extra time is a real possibility.

Let's not pretend this is anything other than a shrug dressed up as a forecast. My model gives Newcastle 34.8%, the draw 33.8% and Everton 31.4%. That's a spread of three and a half points across all three outcomes. If you're looking for conviction, you've come to the wrong place.

I lean slightly toward Newcastle, and I'll admit that the edge is so thin that a decent breeze could erase it. The gap between the top two outcomes is a single point, which tells you the market itself can't make up its mind. Confidence is low, and I'm not going to dress that up as something noble.

The uncomfortable truth is that the favorite's probability barely clears a third. That means roughly two out of three times, Newcastle don't win this. Everton at 31.4% is hardly a throwaway outcome either. Anyone telling you this is a lock is selling something.

If you want my honest read: the numbers prefer the visitors by a hair, the draw is almost equally likely, and the uncertainty is the real story. Treat any pick here as a coin toss with a slight tilt.

I'm going with Newcastle on this one, and I feel fairly good about it. They just went to Crystal Palace and won 2-0, and it looked controlled. Osula scored his first goal in ages, Barnes added another, and the keeper Horníček had a solid game. That kind of away win does wonders for confidence.

Everton are no pushovers, though. They beat Wolves in the last round and looked really lively, with Dibling causing trouble down the right. The loss at Arsenal was a tough away day against a top side, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

What tips it for me is how Newcastle handled the big game last weekend compared to Everton's recent run, which has been a bit flat in front of goal. They've failed to score in two of their last three league games.

But let's be real: Everton at home in a cup tie is dangerous, and past meetings between these two have been wild. I'd pick Newcastle, just not with my house on it.