Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul

Thursday, 27 November 2025 - 20:07 | Liga MX, Apertura

Guadalajara host Cruz Azul in quarterfinals looking to break negative streak

The Apertura 2025 quarterfinals bring us one of the most attractive matchups between two of Mexican football's 'Big Four'. Guadalajara host Cruz Azul at Estadio Akron with the mission of breaking a negative streak that has extended over four consecutive encounters.

Chivas arrive at this stage in excellent form. Gabriel Milito's team closed the regular phase brilliantly, losing just one match from matchday 10 through 17, which secured their direct passage to the playoffs. Roberto Alvarado, a key figure for the red-and-white outfit, has been clear in his statements: "We have to play like we've been doing, with everything on the line."

The arrival of reinforcements like Efraín Álvarez, Richy Ledezma, Diego Campillo, and Bryan González has been fundamental to El Rebaño's good moment. Alvarado himself highlighted the importance of these players: "The reinforcements that arrived have helped us tremendously, they fit very well with the team."

Meanwhile, Cruz Azul presents superior numbers in the general table with 35 points compared to Guadalajara's 29. La Máquina Cementera has shown greater defensive solidity, conceding just 20 goals compared to Chivas' 22. However, they arrive with the significant absence of Kevin Mier, their starting goalkeeper, who was injured in the final matchday.

Recent history clearly favors the sky blues. In the last five encounters, Cruz Azul has won four and lost only one. The most recent, played in August this year at the same Estadio Akron, ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors with goals from Paradela and Rotondi.

The series promises to be very even, with two teams that have shown attractive football throughout the tournament. Chivas will have the advantage of playing at home and counting on their fans' support, while Cruz Azul will look to capitalize on their better position in the table and recent historical superiority.

The first leg will be played this Thursday at the Akron, while the return leg will be on Sunday at Estadio Olímpico Universitario. A clash that promises strong emotions and could be decided by the details.

Both teams have shown they can compete at the highest level, making this one of the most anticipated quarterfinal matchups in recent memory.

Our Experts' Analysis

The Gambler

Market and odds analysis

Slightly favors Guadalajara as home team

From a betting market perspective, this encounter presents a very balanced situation that slightly favors Guadalajara as the home team. The probability analysis reveals a scenario without a clearly defined favorite, making this one of the most evenly matched quarterfinal clashes.

The home field advantage for Chivas is reflected in the betting houses, though not in a decisive manner. This situation is particularly interesting considering El Rebaño's recent adverse history against Cruz Azul, where they've lost four of the last five encounters.

The market shows high entropy, indicating considerable uncertainty about the final result. This translates into an interesting opportunity for bettors, as neither team presents an overwhelming advantage according to operators.

The visiting team's probability remains competitive, reflecting Cruz Azul's quality and better table position. However, the home factor and Guadalajara's strong tournament finish balance the scales.

This market parity suggests we're facing an encounter where details will be fundamental. Kevin Mier's absence in the Cruz Azul goal could be a factor that betting houses are already considering in their calculations.

For betting enthusiasts, these types of balanced encounters usually offer interesting value, especially in alternative markets like total goals or exact score, where uncertainty can translate into attractive odds.

The lack of a clear favorite makes this match particularly appealing from a betting standpoint, with both teams presenting legitimate arguments for victory.

The Newbie

Table and form analysis

Advantage for Guadalajara playing at home

This match looks set to be an authentic battle at Estadio Akron! Looking at the league table and recent performance, Guadalajara has a slight advantage playing at home, though Cruz Azul won't be far behind.

What catches my attention most is how Chivas closed the regular tournament. From matchday 10 they practically didn't lose, and that speaks of a team that found their rhythm just in time for the playoffs. El Rebaño accumulated important points at home, and that confidence will be felt at the Akron.

Cruz Azul, on their part, has better overall numbers with 35 points against Guadalajara's 29, but we must consider the great variability in their performance during the tournament. They've had ups and downs that could work against them in such a decisive stage.

The home factor will be key in this duel. Chivas have known how to take advantage of their fans' support, especially in these big matches. Bryan González mentioned the importance of "making the stadium count," and it's exactly what they need to reverse the adverse history.

The visiting points difference that Cruz Azul manages is considerable, but in playoffs everything resets. Here what happened in the regular phase doesn't matter as much, but rather who is better prepared mentally for quarterfinal pressure.

I expect a very even match, but with Guadalajara gaining a minimal advantage in this first leg thanks to the home factor and the great spirit that Milito's team is experiencing.

Both teams have shown they can compete when it matters most, making this a fascinating tactical battle.

The Expert

Advanced statistical analysis

Cruz Azul favored by historical statistics

Deep statistical analysis of this encounter reveals a clear advantage for Cruz Azul, mainly supported by their superior historical performance and effectiveness as visitors in decisive encounters.

La Máquina Cementera presents impressive numbers in terms of accumulated victories, with a record that demonstrates their ability to maintain consistency across multiple seasons. Their performance as visitors has been particularly solid, a crucial factor considering they must play the first leg in rival territory.

The recent head-to-head record is overwhelming: four Cruz Azul victories in the last five encounters, including triumphs both at home and away. This superiority is not coincidental, but rather reflects better tactical structure and greater experience in elimination stages.

Cruz Azul has demonstrated notable capacity to resolve matches in key moments. Their 32 goals for against 20 against evidence an offensive-defensive balance superior to Guadalajara's, who despite improving their performance in the closing stretch, still present certain structural vulnerabilities.

Nicolás Larcamón's experience in Mexican football is another differential factor. The Argentine coach knows perfectly the league's particularities and has managed to keep Cruz Azul at a constant competitive level.

Although Kevin Mier's absence represents an important loss, the sky blues' squad depth allows them to maintain their level. Gudiño has proven to be a reliable goalkeeper when required.

The statistics suggest Cruz Azul has the necessary tools to overcome the home factor and take an important advantage heading into the return leg. Their superior away record and recent dominance in this fixture make them the statistical favorite despite playing away from home.